The Daily Breakdown looks at the best of the best from 2024, reviewing stocks, stock indices, and crypto as we turn to 2025.
Friday’s TLDR
- The best performers of the year
- Bitcoin’s herculean effort
- JPMorgan breaks out into year-end
The Bottom Line + Weekly Outlook
It’s the last Friday of the year, so let’s look back on what a great year 2024 turned out to be even though it doesn’t end until next Tuesday.
Broader Stock Market
The S&P 500 is up an impressive 26.6% so far on the year, while the Nasdaq 100 is up 29.4% as tech ended on a pretty strong note.
Recall that tech was the second-worst performing S&P 500 sector in Q3. Even though tech historically outperforms the S&P 500, it’s disappointing Q3 had the Nasdaq lagging the S&P going into Q4.
The Dow and Russell 2000 round out the major US stock indices, up about 15% and 12.5%, respectively.
Small caps — as measured by the Russell 2000 — have had an up-and-down year. Despite posting monthly rallies of 10% or more three times in the last 13 months (December 2023, July 2024 and November 2024), it has struggled for consistency.
Crypto
It was another banner year for Bitcoin, as it hoisted the crypto market on its shoulders and carried it higher throughout 2024.
Recall that Bitcoin stormed into 2024, riding in hot in anticipation of the soon-to-be-approved Bitcoin ETFs. After a rapid ~22% pullback in the first few weeks of the year, Bitcoin nearly doubled in two months, making all-time highs.
From there, a multi-month consolidation period ensued. More than once, The Daily Breakdown wondered when the breakout would come. Ultimately, it came in mid-October, eventually vaulting BTC through the coveted $100,000 mark.
Bitcoin nears year-end with a gain of 125% and a market cap of almost $2 trillion.
Individual Stocks
We are just a few days away from closing the year with all 11 sectors in the S&P 500 being in positive territory on a total return basis.
Leading the way has been communications, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks, all three of which are currently up more than 30% year to date. Tech and utilities round out the top five, currently up about 26% and 25%, respectively.
Among the worst performers have been energy, healthcare and materials (up just 4.1%, 4%, and 1.6%, respectively).
When we look at mega-cap stocks, Nvidia led the way (again) with a whopping total return of 184%. That’s followed by Netflix, Tesla, and Meta, with gains of roughly 90%, 82%, and 70%.
With just a few days left in the year, every Magnificent 7 holding is set to end the year higher and each component has outperformed the S&P 500, with the exception of Microsoft and its gain of “just” 16.5%.
As for the top performers in the S&P 500, the recently added Palantir leads the way, with a gain of approximately 380%. That’s followed by Vistra’s ~276% gain, then Nvidia. United Airlines and Axon Enterprise round out the top five with year-to-date gains of about 145% and 144%, respectively.
Nvidia also led the Dow, with Walmart’s 78.5% gain landing in second place. Among the underperformers were Nike and Boeing, with year-to-date losses of roughly 28% and 31%, respectively. They were also the only two Dow components to generate a double-digit percentage loss.
Now we look onward to 2025, where we wish you the best of luck!
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The setup — JPMorgan
While the S&P 500 is up 26.6% so far in 2024, the financial sector has outperformed, up more than 30%. Helping lead that charge is JPMorgan, which is up a whopping 46.3% year to date.
After hitting a high on November 25th, JPM began to pull back. After some consolidation, shares are now breaking out over downtrend resistance.
If JPMorgan stock can stay above downtrend resistance, bulls can maintain momentum. Additionally, recent buyers will want to see the stock stay above its 21-day and 50-day moving averages.
Conversely, a break below these moving averages and downtrend resistance could flip momentum to the bearish side, potentially putting the recent lows back in play near $230.
Options
For options traders, calls or call spreads could be one way to speculate on further upside in JPM. In these scenarios, options buyers limit their risk to the price paid for the calls or call spreads, while trying to capitalize on a bounce in the stock.
Conversely, investors who expect downside could speculate with puts or put spreads.
To learn more about options, consider visiting the eToro Academy.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.