News and Analysis

STEALTH: China’s economy is recovering, inflation is low, and stock market P/E valuations are near half of US averages. Yet China’s equity markets have not performed well this...

SHORT TERM: Price of European carbon emissions allowances has fallen with commodities in recent months. It’s now below the symbolic €100/tonne of CO2 reached for the first time in...

Global bank calls for $100K this year Bitcoin has pushed 1% higher over the last week, making its way slowly back towards $30K as the dollar drifts sideways. Meanwhile, major...

OUTLOOK: Markets have continued to positively surprise, and we see further gains ahead. The long-duration heavy stock market will disproportionately benefit from peaking Fed...

Takeaways from First Republic Bank and implications for the US banking system and economy SUMMARY: First Republic Bank has been taken over by JP Morgan. This may be the last of...

Summary Dodging the earnings cliff again Half S&P 500 reported Q1 earnings, and markets breathe sigh of relief. Less-bad results give more time for inflation medicine to...

VIEW: ‘Sell in May and go away’ is one of the most famous adages in finance. This stock market seasonality is strong and very well-supported by the data (see chart). It is even...

WORRY: Strong Q1 results from Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) again stoked concerns over big-tech’s domination of US markets and the rally this year. That they...

COMPLACENCY: The US debt ceiling deadline, the ‘X-date’, may be closer than thought. The government’s Fed checking account is drying up, making more dependent on tax inflows to...

Is this a result of growing stablecoin activity? As the US dollar strengthened in the last week, the crypto market drifted lower on this market volatility. The decline may...