The ASX200 looks set to open higher today following a rally on Wall Street on Friday. It was another good week for equity markets last week, as investors eyed the end of central bank tightening cycles and inflation globally showed signs of easing.
The Nasdaq100 jumped over 2%, while the ASX gained 1.23% for its third straight week of gains. The Hang Seng was the winner of the week, gaining more than 4% as markets continue to eye up stimulus packages following last week’s pledge from China to step up measures to support the economy.
3 things that happened last week:
- Australian Q2 CPI eases more than expected
Australia’s inflation rate cooled more than expected in Q2, lifting the chance that the RBA will leave rates on hold again in August. The ASX200 spiked higher on the result, with markets reacting to what could signal the end of rate hikes in 2023. This reading is good news but there is still a long way to go in order to bring inflation, which still sits at 6%, back to a target of 2–3%.
The decline follows inflation trends seen overseas, which the Reserve Bank will welcome after four percentage points’ worth of rate hikes. The end of the RBA’s hiking cycle may now be in sight, but that doesn’t mean that cuts are on the horizon this year.
- Meta shines after huge earnings week
It was a massive week on the earnings front for big tech last week, and it was Meta Platforms (META) stealing the limelight. Meta beat across the board, and importantly Q3 guidance was above forecast, with the social media giant anticipating double-digit growth next quarter. It’s been a stark turnaround for Meta investors in 2023, with shares gaining more than 140% after seeing a 64% decline in 2022, its worst-ever annual decline. But, its year of efficiency is paying off, with its bottom line up 21% for the quarter, showing signs of recovery after six previous quarters of negative growth. Zuckerberg and Co have done a stellar job in turning the Meta ship around over the last 18 months in a challenging economic backdrop and will now focus on measured growth through AI and, of course, its metaverse venture.
For a review of other earnings last week, check out the latest episode of the Market Bites podcast on Digest and Invest by eToro.
- A winner and loser last week from the S&P/ASX200
Beach Energy (BPT) shares rose 8% last week following a solid fourth-quarter update, with production up 12%. Oil prices also gave shares a boost, with crude jumping by 2%.
It was a horrid week for Core Lithium (CXO), with the miners’ shares tumbling -24%. Its production guidance for FY 2024 and 2025 was below expectations, which left investors disappointed.
*Past performance is not a guide to future performance
3 things to watch for the week ahead:
1. RBA Rate Decision
When the RBA meets this week, they will have a tough debate on whether to hike or keep rates on hold. Q2 CPI released last week showed that inflation is declining in Australia thanks in part to Philip Lowe and the Reserve Bank’s 12 hikes in 15 months. There is still a long way to go in order to bring inflation, which still sits at 6%, back to a target of 2–3% – and Australia’s labour market continues to show resilience, which means rates may stay higher for longer. Looking ahead to the decision, the market believes there is only a 11% chance of a hike this week after the lower-than-expected inflation data, but we’ve seen this year that the board can surprise markets. Although another pause seems to be on the cards this week, markets still believe that the Reserve Bank has another hike in the tank, pricing in a 75% chance they will hike before year-end. The good news for investors is a pause from the RBA this week could be the catalyst to propel the ASX200 within touching distance of record highs, and may readjust market pricing to see 4.1% as the peak.
2. Reporting season is just around the corner
The Australian reporting season is unofficially underway as of last week, with Rio Tinto’s half-year results, and this week sees two more names reporting in Credit Corp Group and BWP Trust. Investors will soon gain insight into the Australian companies that are effectively manoeuvring through an undoubtedly difficult macroeconomic landscape. Some companies, like CSL, have already forewarned investors about underwhelming full-year results by revising profit guidance. Given the challenging environment mentioned, investors’ focus should be on cost control measures and then on margins given that over the past year, inflation has been at a 30-year high. Unfortunately for dividend-loving investors, some corporates may decide to trim dividends in a bid to preserve balance sheets. Finally, watch for FY24 outlooks, which will likely hold the key to who comes out of reporting season as a winner.
3. Apple Earnings
Apple (APPL) shares have had a strong start to 2023, gaining almost 50% year-to-date and tipping over the historic $3 trillion mark in June. With Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) showing recently anything but perfect results will be punished, its FQ3 earnings this week will have no margin for error. China’s faltering economic recovery will be a worry for investors, particularly with consumers in the region not spending at the levels Apple is used to. The bright spot is likely to be services revenue, one of the only segments set to post revenue growth for the quarter, thanks to the success of the App Store, ApplePay and AppleTV to name a few. This segment of the business is a powerhouse and is set to be a major contributor to Apple’s growth over the next decade, making it an area of the business investors should watch. Further updates regarding the release of the iPhone15 should lift investor optimism as the upgrade cycle swings into full force. Market consensus is for earnings of $1.20 on revenue of $81.5 billion. If revenue consensus is met, it would signify the third quarter of declining revenue for Apple.
*All data accurate as of 31/07/2023. Data Source: Bloomberg and eToro
Disclaimer:
This communication is general information and education purposes only and should not be taken as financial product advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial product. It has been prepared without taking your objectives, financial situation or needs into account. Any references to past performance and future indications are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results. eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.