- ASX 200 December performance beats average across other months by 1.36 percentage points, equating to 29 per cent of yearly gains
- Analysis reveals the ASX 200 outperforms the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and STOXX 600 over the Christmas period
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has historically seen the biggest Santa rally, rising 3.1 per cent on average
Tuesday, 3rd December – Investors in the ASX 200 enjoy over a quarter of their annual returns in December, higher than the global average of 23 per cent returns, with Hong Kong the best place to enjoy outsized Christmas gains, according to analysis from trading and investing platform eToro. The so-called ‘Santa rally’ – the tendency for markets to outperform in December – is well-known amongst seasoned investors. However, the data from eToro emphasises just how pronounced the trend is and, therefore, how important it is to stay invested through the holiday season.
eToro looked at the monthly price returns for 14 of the world’s largest stock indices, including the ASX 200, going back an average of 50 years. The analysis shows that returns in December for the ASX 200 averaged 1.78 per cent, comfortably exceeding the average monthly return from January to November by 1.36 percentage points. Thanks to the Santa rally, December has typically accounted for 29 per cent of the total gains the ASX 200 sees across the year. This is higher than the global December average of 1.63 per cent, which has typically accounted for 23 per cent of the total gains all 14 stock markets see across the year.
Chart shows average monthly performance of the ASX 200
*Source: Refinitiv data dating back to 1992 for ASX200
Commenting on the data, eToro Analyst Josh Gilbert said: “Although past performance does not guarantee future returns, December has historically been a strong month for stock markets around the world, including the ASX 200. This is reflective of what experienced investors know as the “Santa rally. Our analysis shows that Aussies typically benefit from strong gains in December, accounting for over a quarter of annual returns on average. There are a number of potential reasons behind this seasonal boost, such as optimism around the new year to the ‘January effect’ of new investor allocations – it’s clear that retail investors who miss out on this period may not maximise their yearly returns.”
According to the data, based purely on the size of returns, the best hunting ground for Santa rally investors in past years has been Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which since 1965 (when records begin) has risen by an average of 3.1 per cent in December. This is 2.15 percentage points more than the average monthly return for this index across the rest of the year and accounts for 23 per cent of the stock market’s average annual performance. Across all 14 indices eToro analysed, the only Christmas Grinch spoiling the party is Spain’s IBEX 35, with December underperforming the average returns from January to November by 0.14 percentage points.
Josh Gilbert adds: “Christmas may have already come early for some investors this year, with new record highs for the ASX 200, bitcoin and the S&P 500 all before December. But, that seasonal joy doesn’t look to be over as we head into 2025. The stage for markets remains positive, and the view of investors positioning for the year ahead is one of the key drivers for the Santa Rally. With a 12-month outlook for the year ahead, allocations are often positive and that’s more apparent this year with a strong fundamental backdrop that will keep driving markets. ”
Table shows December performance of the 14 stock markets included in eToro’s analysis
| Stock Index | Average December performance | Average December outperformance vs rest of year | December performance as % of yearly return |
| Hang Seng (Hong Kong) | 3.09% | 2.15% | 23% |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | 2.29% | 1.93% | 36% |
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | 1.98% | 1.59% | 32% |
| TSX (Canada) | 1.84% | 1.34% | 25% |
| ASX 200 (Australia) | 1.78% | 1.36% | 29% |
| KOSPI (Korea) | 1.75% | 0.98% | 17% |
| STOXX 600 (Europe) | 1.71% | 1.32% | 29% |
| Nasdaq (US) | 1.53% | 0.48% | 12% |
| SIX (Switzerland) | 1.42% | 0.92% | 20% |
| DAX 40 (Germany) | 1.32% | 0.71% | 17% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 1.28% | 0.63% | 16% |
| FTSE MIB (Italy) | 1.26% | 1.05% | 39% |
| CAC 40 (France) | 1.19% | 0.58% | 15% |
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | 0.42% | -0.14% | 7% |
*Past performance is not an indication of future results.
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