- Analysis from eToro shows how loyalty is as important in investing as it is in relationships
- Holding the S&P 500 for one year gives you a 72% chance of a positive return, rising to 95% over 20 years
- Staying committed through rocky patches can be rewarding, as stocks like Broadcom and Arista Networks weathered storms and rebounded with four-digit recoveries
14 February 2025, London – Loyalty is just as crucial in investing as it is in romantic relationships, according to analysis conducted by trading and investing platform eToro for Valentine’s Day.
Based on historical data, the likelihood of a positive return from holding the S&P 500 for one single year is 72% (table 1). This figure rises to 87% if held for 10 years, and 95% if held for 20 years. Data from the FTSE 100 tells the same story, with the probability of a positive return rising from 66% for one year to 83% for a 20-year relationship.
Nonetheless, not all relationships are meant to be forever. While holding the STOXX 600 will give you a 66% chance of a positive return, you would get the same result from holding for one year. In fact, this figure goes down as time goes on, dropping to 61% over 10 years and 47% over 20 years.
Lale Akoner, Global Markets Analyst at eToro comments on the findings: “As the saying goes, time in the market beats timing the market. There are ups and downs in investing just as in relationships, so it’s important not to always panic-sell at the first sight of a red flag.
“Our analysis of S&P and FTSE data shows that the chances of a profitable outcome increases dramatically as you stay committed for longer periods of time. That said, not all indices are built the same, as sticking with the sluggish STOXX 600 for longer wouldn’t yield the same effect. That doesn’t mean investors shouldn’t flirt with Europe – after all, holding it between one to ten years would still give you an over-60% chance of profit. However it’s important to know what your investing goals are: a short-term affair or a long-term bond.”
Table 1: Likelihood of a positive return from holding different indices
| 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | |
| FTSE 100 | 66% | 73% | 85% | 83% |
| S&P 500 | 72% | 81% | 87% | 95% |
| STOXX 600 | 66% | 66% | 61% | 47% |
Source: Bloomberg and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (7th February 2025)
eToro’s data also looked at five long-term relationships where loyalty paid off, as well as five short-term flings that left investors heartbroken when it came to stocks over the past ten years.
Investors who rode out the tough times with companies like Broadcom, Arista Networks and TSMC, staying strong through 50-60% dips, were eventually rewarded with massive gains (table 2). Broadcom, for example, saw its share price crash 53% from January to March 2020, but recovered 1,450% by the time of its all-time high in January 2025.
On the other hand, investors who were swept off their feet by eye-catching rallies posted by the likes of Zoom, Peloton and Docusign were less lucky in love, as these stocks came crashing down soon after and continue to underperform the market (table 3). Peloton saw the biggest rally at 870%, but also the biggest plunge at 98%, and today its share price is far from where it was at its IPO.
Lale Akoner adds: “The five stocks in our list of ‘short-term flings’ initially thrived during COVID, riding the rise of remote work, home workouts and pet ownership. Yet, the thrilling honeymoon phase quickly soured as lockdown measures eased. Although thematic investing is a valid strategy, it’s important not to get swept up in fleeting trends and exit before things get toxic.
“By contrast, even companies with strong fundamentals, a competitive edge and growth potential supported by long-term macrotrends can go through rocky periods. Investors who stand by them through thick and thin may ultimately be rewarded for their patience and commitment.”
Table 2: Long-term relationships – stocks that have posted spectacular recoveries after a major dip in last ten years
| Stock | Plunge | Recovery to peak | Returns last 5 years | Returns last 10 years |
| Axon Enterprises | -62%
(Jan 2021 to Jun 2022) |
748%
(Jun 2022 to Jan 2025) |
717% | 2,442% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company | -60%
(Jan 2022 to Oct 2022) |
284%
(Oct 2022 to Jan 2025) |
214% | 811% |
| Broadcom | -53%
(Jan 2020 to Mar 2020) |
1,450%
(Mar 2020 to Dec 2024) |
633% | 2,108% |
| Arista Networks | -53%
(Apr 2019 to Mar 2020) |
1,290%
(Mar 2020 to Jan 2025) |
694% | 3,152% |
| Oracle Corporation | -42%
(Nov 2021 to Sep 2022) |
229%
(Sep 2022 to Dec 2024) |
214% | 301% |
Source: Refinitiv (7th February 2025)
*Past performance is not an indication of future results
Table 3: Short-term flings – stocks that made eye-catching rallies in the last ten years, but have underperformed since
| Stock | Rally | Plunge to trough | Returns last 5 years | Returns since IPO* |
| Peloton Interactive | 870%
(Mar 2020 to Jan 2021) |
-98%
(Jan 2021 to Apr 2024) |
-69% | -67%
(Sep 2019) |
| Zoom | 852%
(Nov 2019 to Oct 2020) |
-90%
(Oct 2020 to July 2024) |
-2% | 39%
(April 2019) |
| Docusign | 791%
(Nov 2018 to Aug 2021) |
-87%
(Aug 2021 to Oct 2022) |
12% | 136%
(April 2018) |
| Roku | 727%
(Mar 2020 to Jul 2021) |
-92%
(Jul 2021 to Dec 2022) |
-34% | 245%
(Sep 2017) |
| Chewy | 463%
(Mar 2020 to Feb 2021) |
-87%
(Feb 2021 to April 2024) |
38% | 10%
(Jun 2019) |
Source: Refinitiv (7th February 2025)
*All of these stocks went public during the previous ten years so there is no ten-year performance data.
*Past performance is not an indication of future results
*ENDS*
Notes to editors
About this data
eToro analysed returns from the S&P 500 from 1871-2025, FTSE 100 from 1710-2025, and STOXX 600 from 1987-2025 using data from Bloomberg and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Individual stock data taken from Refinitiv.
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