Break-ing the bank: Cost of breakfast food staples soars 71% in just two years

• eToro’s Breakfast Commodity Index looks at spot prices of morning staples such as tea, coffee, oats, wheat, milk, cocoa and orange juice
• Orange juice has seen the steepest commodity price rise of any item in the breakfast basket, jumping 124% in two years
• Cocoa has seen the most modest price rise, increasing just 7%, with the crop’s price having been negatively impacted by a surplus of supply during the Covid pandemic
• 71% increase in the price of breakfast commodities dramatically outpaces the 11% rise in UK CPI since July 2020, indicating there is more price pain to come for consumers

20 July 2022 – The cost of commodities that make up a typical breakfast has soared over 70% in the past two years, according to the latest Breakfast Commodity Index from social investing network eToro. 

The rate of price growth dramatically outpaces the 11% rise in the UK consumer price index (CPI) over the same period, indicating there is likely to be more price pain to come for UK consumers as food companies look for ways to offset their costs.

The Breakfast Commodity Index is based on current spot prices of a basket of nine typical breakfast goods – wheat, sugar, cocoa, oats, pork, orange juice, coffee, milk and tea. Since July 2020, the index has risen by 71%, with the war in Ukraine, global supply chain issues and bad weather the key factors causing the upward trend.

Ben Laidler, Global Market Analyst at eToro, said: “Commodity prices have been rising across the board since the Covid pandemic thanks to global supply chain chaos, and the war in Ukraine has only exacerbated this. Add this to poor weather impacting a number of crops in the last year, and you have a perfect storm of factors making the food on your breakfast table far more expensive to source and supply for food companies. 

“Much of these price increases are already being passed on to consumers, through higher prices or smaller ‘shrinkflation’ sizings.”

Orange juice has seen the steepest price rise of any item in the breakfast basket, with its commodity price jumping 124% in two years, largely thanks to a particularly poor orange harvest in the US stemming from bad weather and disease.

Coffee prices have also skyrocketed, rising 94% over the same period, again a result of poor weather in major producing countries such as Brazil, as well as ongoing global supply chain issues. Not far behind, the price of pork has jumped 80% since July 2020 – a trend thought to be the result of higher transportation and labour costs.

Whilst every single item in eToro’s Breakfast Commodity Index has risen in price in the last two years, cocoa has experienced the most modest rise, increasing just 7%, with the crop’s price having been negatively impacted by a surplus of supply during the Covid pandemic.

Spot prices taken in the first week of July and January every six months for previous two years

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About the data

Data sourced from Refinitiv on Wednesday July 6 2022. Wheat (No.2, soft Red, US$/Bushel), Raw Sugar (ISA, US$c/lb), Cocoa (ICCO, US$/MT), Oats (No.2 Milling Minneapolis, US$/Bushel), Orange juice (Refinitiv CRB CMP), Milk (Non Fat Dry Grade A), Coffee (ICO Composite ICA, US$c/lb), Pork (Bellies, 12-14lbs, Mid-US, US$/lb), Tea (Medium, PF1, Kenya, US$/Kg).

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