SOME HEALING: We are seeing signs of supply chains readjusting to the huge demand and dislocations seen this year. Our supply chain ‘pain’ index is down 20% from early October...

LESS UPSIDE RISK: A ‘fourth wave’ of global virus cases is underway (see chart) as we head into the northern hemisphere winter. This will dampen but not derail the economic...

RISKS: Brent crude is -8% from $86/bbl to $79 on rising virus cases and talk of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release from US, China and others. US has 600 million bbls in...

ALL-CONQUERING: The US dollar has conquered all this year, outperforming 85% of the 30 major global currencies we track. It has been boosted by the sharp re-pricing of Fed...

SPINOFFS: Announced breakups by GE (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Japan’s Toshiba highlight for many the ‘death of the conglomerate’. We are not so sure. Spin-offs have not...

SOFT COMMODITIES: A 55% surge in our ‘breakfast’ cost index the past year is outpacing the commodity rally and piling cost pressures on many. This is boosting inflation, interest...

SEASONALITY: S&P 500 has rebounded 9% from October low. This begs the question if the seasonal Santa rally came early? Partly. We are near our 4,700 end year target, but with...

EVERYTHING RALLY: Equities have set new records and resilient to rising inflation. We are positive on the fundamentals, seeing more profit surprises ahead, and still low bond...

NEXT TESLA: Yesterday saw the year’s biggest IPO, of electric SUV maker Rivian (RIVN). The c.$100 billion valuation reflects the booming EV outlook. Industry volumes are seen...

EXPECTING: China’s 13th annual Singles Day shopping event tomorrow is the world’s largest. But this year is different. It has a longer sales-season (like last, for the first...