SENTIMENT SUPPORT: We check our proprietary investor sentiment indicator (chart). This shows the recent deterioration in sentiment. But not to the extreme levels that would signal...

MARKETS: Rotation away from long-duration tech is accelerating, with NASDAQ -10%,  and risk aversion across equities. Fed tightening fears, and bond yields, have surged. We are...

RALLY: The broad-based Bloomberg commodity index has rallied 70% from its low 27 months ago. The average commodity rally has been 120% over 30 months, implying room for more....

BOOM: Private equity (PE) has boomed in the last decade. Their assets have risen to over $7 trillion, returns have averaged 12% annually, and uninvested ‘dry powder’ is near a...

RISE AND FALL: The huge repricing of Fed interest rate expectations has taken a big toll on the perceived ‘riskiest’ assets (see chart). Most are down 30-45% from 2021 highs vs...

NEW KID ON BLOCK: Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is a new and big driver of retail sales, especially for the young, and in markets like Australia, UK, US (see chart). It was c$150...

REFOCUS: Global fourth quarter 2021 earnings season unofficially starts Friday with US banks JPM, C, and WFC. Consensus is for strong 20% earnings growth from the S&P 500 and...

PICK-AND-SHOVEL PLAY: Lithium was the 2021 green commodities standout, up near 200%, and driving producer stocks (see chart). Electric vehicle (EV) battery demand surged, with...

FED FOCUS: We are positive 2022, but clear it will see lower returns than last year, with more volatility. The Fed is turning more hawkish. Market is pricing interest rates rising...

2022: We are bullish a rare fourth year of strong equity returns. The earnings outlook is under-appreciated and valuations well-supported. Our focus is cheaper and faster growing...