Q1: Improving earnings is the main driver of this nascent bull market. We are optimistic as we enter the final stretch of earnings season. The three US tech sectors have...

PILLAR: Fed chair Powell kept the door open to US interest rate cuts this year. Less, and later, but still coming (see chart). And this is a key second pillar, alongside stronger...

SECTOR: The global listed auto industry is the most divided of any we have seen. From Tesla’s (TSLA) still-giant $800 billion market cap and 70x price earnings valuation, to...

SPENDING: Defence spending is set to structurally rise around the world with the new normal of geopolitical tension and end of the multi-decade peace dividend. The US passed $95...

RISES: Our proprietary Breakfast commodity price index has surged by 54% in the past year. As weather-driven supply disruptions have spread, driving cocoa, OJ, and coffee prices...

VALUATIONS: We are positive on the resilience of the super-sized US stock market. But its combination of already high profitability and above average valuations limits the upside....

CHANGE: US markets are supersized and dominate global stocks, bonds, and currencies. This makes any changes to their underlying market ‘plumbing’ disproportionately important. On...

SQUEEZE: Initial public offerings (IPO) are making a tentative comeback after two-years of depressed activity. The number of US IPOs is up 10% this year even as the Renaissance...

COFFEE: Prices have soared 25% this year as bad weather hit crops in major arabica producer Brazil and especially top robusta grower Vietnam. With the typical robusta price...

‘The out-of-synch global economy The global economy base case is a ‘goldilocks’ soft landing with reassuring balanced risks. With stable 3.2% global growth and outlook for 2%...