DEFENCE: Geopolitical risks have returned. With the first anniversary of the Ukraine invasion, Russia withdrawing from the START nuclear deal, and Chinese balloons over the US....

LONG HAUL: The China and HK stock rally has come off the boil. This is unsurprising after the dramatic c.60% October-January reopening rally, with local stocks now the ‘most...

HIGH-FOR-LONGER: European natural gas prices have plunged 85% since the summer. They are back to parity with Brent oil equivalent prices (see chart). This has delivered huge...

EBBING: Very depressed investor sentiment has been an important contrarian support to equity markets. It has added fuel to the turn up in the fundamentals and resulting sharp...

CHANGE: Japan’s slow-moving but potentially momentous monetary policy pivot took another step forward. With the naming of academic Kazuo Ueda as replacement for long-standing Bank...

SURPRISE: Europe’s Stoxx 600 index is within 5% of its all-time high and is the best performing region this year. Some, like the UK’s FTSE 100 and France’s CAC 40, are already at...

BRACE: US inflation is the biggest number in markets. It’s driving the Fed rate cycle and macro and earnings recession risks. Plus the Fed ‘data dependent’ and markets looking for...

SUPPORT: Tuesday’s Valentine’s Day is the next test for the still-resilient US consumer. A lot hangs on it. It’s a top-5 spending event of the year, consumption is near 70% of the...

SHRINKING HORIZONS: Warren Buffett famously says his favourite stock holding period is forever. The same cannot be said for many other investors. The average holding period for US...

RALLY: The 2023 ‘everything’ rally has been led by the big losers of last year, from crypto to disruptive tech. It’s been dismissed as a low quality ‘junk’ rally or a ‘dash for...