OUTLOOK: Markets have continued to positively surprise, and we see further gains ahead. The long-duration heavy stock market will disproportionately benefit from peaking Fed...

Takeaways from First Republic Bank and implications for the US banking system and economy SUMMARY: First Republic Bank has been taken over by JP Morgan. This may be the last of...

VIEW: ‘Sell in May and go away’ is one of the most famous adages in finance. This stock market seasonality is strong and very well-supported by the data (see chart). It is even...

WORRY: Strong Q1 results from Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META) again stoked concerns over big-tech’s domination of US markets and the rally this year. That they...

COMPLACENCY: The US debt ceiling deadline, the ‘X-date’, may be closer than thought. The government’s Fed checking account is drying up, making more dependent on tax inflows to...

SUPPLY: Chile’s plans to nationalize its huge lithium industry surprised markets. It maybe shouldn’t have. This so-called ‘resource nationalism’, of increased country control of...

INVESTMENTS: Tomorrow is Earth Day, which marks the anniversary of the birth of the modern environmental movement in 1970. The theme for the 53rd annual Day is ‘invest in our...

RALLY: Gold is having a moment in the sun. Up strongly this year and near its $2,070 all-time multi millennial high, after a disappointing 2022. The rally has been driven by a...

EAST: European currencies have been both some of the world's strongest, and weakest this year. Eastern Europe has led the way, with the Hungarian Forint (HUF) surging 10% vs the...

SENTIMENT: The reversal rally this year by the 2022 losers has been painful for most investors who have stayed cautious. Our composite sentiment index is below average and a...