OUTLOOK: The $1.2 trillion crypto asset class is by far the smallest but the best performing this year. Its correlation with tech stocks has plunged, and its volatility now below competitor gold. The near term investment case focuses on approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, the emerging regulatory clarity, and next April’s bitcoin ‘halving’. A slower moving but big driver is institutional adoption, with the asset class pioneered, and already well-owned, by retail investors. We see three big institutional adoption catalysts coming into focus. 1) New accounting rules set to make corporate ownership of crypto more attractive. 2) New global bank rules allowing $200 billion of crypto ownership. 3) A first central bank announcing owning crypto among its FX reserves. @BitcoinWorldWide.
TREASURY: 1) The US accounting standards board (FASB) set to make it easier for companies to own crypto. The move from an historic cost to new fair value treatment would see regular price adjustments pass through the income statement. This would better reflect their value, even if it introduces more earnings volatility. Only around 55 of the c.50,000 publicly listed companies globally own bitcoin today, representing 1% of the total supply, led by MicroStrategy (MSTR), Marathon Digital (MARA), and Tesla (TSLA). By contrast companies, through share buybacks, have become the biggest single buyer of US stocks, purchasing $920 billion last year alone.
RESERVES: 2) Global bank regulators set crypto exposure limits, to be implemented by mid 2025. Banks are limited to hold riskier crypto assets equal to 1% their total Tier 1 capital, up to a max of 2% including stablecoins. With global tier 1 capital at c.$10 trillion, this is an upper limit of c.$200 billion ownership. 3) Central banks may further diversify their huge FX reserves to include bitcoin alongside gold. Gold is 17% of global total FX reserves today. This is worth $2 trillion or three times Bitcoin market cap. None have announced yet but a first may be coming.
All data, figures & charts are valid as of 09/08/2023.