CLIMATE: The 27th two-week UN climate conference starts in Egypt November 6th with low expectations. Policymakers face big distractions from the Ukraine war, energy security fears, geopolitical tensions, and weakening economies. This year’s focus will be more on accelerating implementation than on big new commitments. Recent extreme weather and Africa’s hosting will see a change of tone towards climate adaptation as much as mitigation. But climate change continues to rise up the public’s agenda, and renewables investments are seeing strong growth.
CHALLENGES: The world is set to dramatically miss the estimated 43% emissions cut needed by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. The UN estimates emissions on track to rise 11%, on current cut commitments. This is only 3% less growth than last year’ forecast. But the public’s climate change focus has kept gaining ground even as other worries shift, with inflation surging and coronavirus plunging. Climate ranks as world’ 7th biggest worry, by 17% in Ipsos monthly global survey (see chart). This is up 2% from 10th a year ago.
CONTEXT: Renewables investment themes have been overshadowed this year by high for longer oil prices and the energy sector’s record-breaking outperformance. This has obscured the ‘green dividend’ of more ambitious policy, renewables investment and EV adoption. The EU RePower deal raised the bloc’s 2030 renewables mix target to 45%. US passed the emblematic Inflation Reduction Act. Australia saw a policy flip towards renewables, and Lula’s recent victory in Brazil holds out hope for more there. Global EV sales rose 60% in 1H 2022, and renewables power capacity growth is being revised higher. See @RenewableEnergy and @Driverless.
All data, figures & charts are valid as of 03/11/2022