Please see this week’s market views from eToro’s global analyst team. The full 5-pager includes latest market data, the house investment view, and a weekly ‘special’.
The better outlook for Europe in 2024
The outlook for European markets is not as bad as seems. Growth is low and debt high. But inflation plunged, giving ECB flexibility, alongside FX and fiscal buffers. It’s the ‘canary in the global coal-mine’, as most sensitive to economic and FX outlook. It’s cheaper than many, more cyclical, and global. Due a cyclical catch up in 2024 to its chronic long-term US underperformance. Italy is cheap. Switzerland and UK defensive. Germany China focused. @EuropeEconomy. See Page 4
Markets rebound as bond yield angst eases
Stock and bonds soared as the bond yield and oil price vice eased pressure n markets. Central banks held rates steady and US jobs market cooled. Havens from gold to the US dollar fell back. AAPL results beat but Christmas outlook disappointed. NVO and LLY Q3 driven by weight loss boom. Renewables sell-off deepened with ORSTED.CO charge-off. See Q4 Markets Outlook HERE and at twitter @laidler_ben. See Page 2
The political tests of November
Summer’s stock ‘breather’ turned to deeper Oct. ‘correction’ but we see grounds for contrarian optimism as the bond yield and oil vice eases, earnings turn, technicals support. See Page 2
Mixed messages from strong earnings season
Tech has led the end of the US earnings recession but still nervous investors are treating any ‘misses’ brutally and are rewarding higher margins less than better revenues. See Page 2
The music industry rises again
Industry booming on combo of recorded and live music generating $52bn sales with streaming growth, post pandemic live music rebound, and mega acts now moving macro data. See Page 2
The orange juice high-wire act
OJ doubled on weather and disease hits, and no quick fix. But market illiquid, investor interest high, drinkers have other options. See Page 2
Crypto holds onto big gains
BTC stayed near $35,000 and up over 100% YTD, on low correlation with other assets and spot ETF outlook. But SOL, ADA, and DOT led the weekly gains. BTC correlation with tech lowest in over 2-years, whilst relationship with safer-haven gold tightened. Seen big CME futures activity pickup. See latest Weekly Crypto Roundup. See Page 3
Agriculture offsets energy
Commodities inch higher with markets rebound and weaker dollar. Ag strength, from sugar to cocoa, offset oil under $90/bbl. as Middle East concerns contained. Gold giant Barrick Q3 beat and raised. Coffee leader Starbucks saw 8% US same store growth. Oil major Shell profits fall by a third but increased its buyback. See Page 3
The week ahead: China, Disney, politics
1) Quieter week focus on China trade inflation, and huge Singles Day shopping. 2) Last big US earnings week, DIS to UBER, plus OpenAi conference. 3) Central bankers speak at IMF, plus UK Kings speech and GDP. 4) Political week from Middle East to US budget talks. See Page 3
Our key views: Stronger months ahead
See a stronger Q4 and 2024 as summer breather and tall wall-of-worry fades, and investors look ahead to lower inflation and coming rate cuts as growth slows, and earnings outlook firms. Focus defensive growth and long duration assets from healthcare to big tech. Cautious growth exposed cyclicals, commodities, and banks. See Page 5
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