The worst two weeks of the year

There’s a lot of pressure on your portfolio right now. 

The S&P 500 is now down 5% since August, and it seems like investors just can’t catch a break. Yields, oil, and the dollar are soaring, and the Federal Reserve just won’t let up on its quest to fight inflation through rate hikes. Oh, and did I mention we have strikes, a shutdown, and student debt repayments looming on the horizon?

It’s a stressful time, but if you take a step back, you can see a few themes unfolding.

The Fed is making moves. Yesterday, Fed chair Jay Powell laid out the case for even higher rates next year than most expected. For good reason — the US economy seems to be doing well right now. Hence why the 10-year yield is at a 16-year high.

The global economy isn’t doing so hot. On the other hand, major economies like China and Europe haven’t been able to stimulate enough growth. That’s fueled a rush into dollar-denominated assets and confused investors even more.

Oil seems to be on another planet. The demand for oil doesn’t seem to be there, but the supply is low enough to force the prices higher. No matter the cause, higher gas prices could strain your wallet.

We’re in the worst two weeks of the year. Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500, with the last two weeks being the weakest part of the month. The seasonal winds are working against us.

Plus, there are opportunities for short-term strategies, if you’re willing to look. The S&P 500 just broke its 100-day moving average and is hovering around a three-month low. The next stop could be the 200-day moving average, which sits around 4,200.

Remember why you’re investing and how much risk you can take on. Check your portfolio and reassess your strategy, but remember that 5 to 10% selloffs are normal, even in healthy markets.

*Data sourced through Bloomberg. Can be made available upon request.