The Daily Breakdown examines Fed comments and a trade that could warm you up during this cold front.
Wednesday’s TLDR
- Stocks dance around highs with mixed Fed comments.
- Natural gas prices plunge during a brutal cold front.
- AMD hits a two-year high.
What’s happening?
Stocks teased investors around highs yesterday, with the S&P 500 coming within 0.5% of the record close intraday. Ultimately, the index dropped 0.4% on the day, dragged down by energy and materials stocks.
Fed president comments were the big focus of Tuesday’s trading session. Fed governor Christopher Waller said that rates should be lowered “methodically and carefully” while speaking at a public event. Waller’s comment threw markets for a loop — after all, the expectation of several rate cuts this year may not exactly be methodical and careful.
Ultimately, it was just another day in the rate cut guessing game that we’re all participants in. In my opinion, it’s not worth stressing over Fed comments. They can send ripples through markets, but there seems to be little signal unless it comes from the big man himself: Fed chair Jay Powell.
Outside of pesky Fed headlines, watch financial stocks today as earnings ramp up. And keep an eye on the December retail sales report, which could throw the bulls off if it’s weaker than expected.
The setup
There’s a nasty cold front moving through the US right now. So let me tell you about a trade that could potentially warm you and your portfolio up a bit.
Believe it or not, deep freezes are tradeable. Natural gas prices are tracked by the United Natural Gas Fund (ticker UNG), a well-known commodity ETF.
Natural gas has some interesting stuff going on now, too. UNG dropped 16% yesterday, its biggest slide in seven months, after a 35% rally to start the year. Traders may be on to something, too. It’s cold right now, but we’re in the middle of a historic El Niño weather pattern that could keep temperatures warmer than average. US natural gas supplies are at their highest for a winter since 2020.
UNG is sitting right on its 50-day moving average, too. I wouldn’t be shocked to see natural gas prices move lower from here, especially if we see temperatures pick back up. Of course, the risk is that another cold front comes our way, but I’m no meteorologist.
Want to receive these insights straight to your inbox?
What Wall Street is watching
AMD: AMD shares jumped to a two-year high as Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley raised his 12-month price target to $200, citing AI demand as a driver of chip growth. The new price target implies that AMD shares could rise another 26% from yesterday’s close.
MS: Morgan Stanley dropped its most in three months after reporting disappointing margins in its wealth management business, as well as warning that future margins could stay low over the near-term.
BA: Boeing shares slid after Wells Fargo analysts cut the stock’s rating, voicing concerns that regulatory checks stemming from the January 5 Alaska Airlines plane mishap could weigh on plane deliveries. Boeing shares have dropped 20% since the day of the incident.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.