Boot Camp Day 1
In September, we did a week-long bootcamp program highlighting a few key topics (like position sizing, timing, and handling corrections). That program can be found here. We’re revisiting that concept, except this time with some different topics.
Today, we’re talking about Fundamentals.
A lot of investors consider themselves fundamental investors, focusing on the core components — the guts — of a market, sector, industry, or individual asset. These types of investors usually take several criteria into consideration, such as future earnings and revenue growth, margins, dividend yield, and valuation.
Stocks vs. Markets
When investors take general markets into consideration — say the S&P 500 — it’s different than when they’re looking at individual companies.
While they still measure key metrics like earnings growth and valuation, there are different factors to consider, particularly on the macro front. These can include tariffs, the jobs market, interest rates, and inflation.
When investors are measuring the fundamentals of a specific company, those macro components can be a consideration. But they’ll likely be more in tune with the company’s competition, business developments, and the three main financial statements: The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement.
You can explore those further in the eToro Academy.
Where to Start
Whether it’s the S&P 500 or a specific company, the first place I usually start is with expected growth. I agree with those who believe that what a stock or index is expected to do is more important than what it has already done.
On Wall Street, it’s all about the future.
Expected Growth: I start by looking at the expected earnings and revenue growth for the current year, as well as the following year. That gives me an idea of whether investors expect the firm to be growing its top- and bottom-line, and if so, by how much.
Forward Valuation: Next, I look at the valuation — generally by looking at the forward earnings valuation. That will take the current stock price and divide it by expected earnings. This will give you the forward P/E ratio. This works for indices (like the S&P 500) and individual stocks.
Forward P/E Ratio: Current Stock Price ÷ Expected Earnings Per Share
Some industries and stocks trade with high forward multiples, while others trade with lower multiples. When possible, I like to look at this measure (or your preferred valuation measure) against the asset’s historical range. This will give you an idea about whether the asset is expensive or cheap on a relative basis — in other words, it will compare the valuation to how it has traded in the past.
For instance, if the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio typically trades within a range of 17 times to 21 times, and it’s trading at 23 times expected earnings right now, then it may be expensive unless it has stellar growth expectations.
The Bottom Line
We only looked at two approaches, but there are all types of metrics and valuations you can use. Don’t hesitate to look at the company’s “Investor Relations” page, which will usually provide access to a whole host of reports, data, and presentations.
Fundamental investors are looking to buy healthy assets and avoid unhealthy ones. They want to buy strong businesses, and with any luck, get them at a fair price. You can read more about value investing with this eToro Academy Guide.
Disclaimer:
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.