Bitcoin ETFs’ collateral damage

The Daily Breakdown examines a strong stock market, bank earnings and crypto miners post-Bitcoin ETF approval.

Tuesday’s TLDR

  • Stocks find their footing.
  • Earnings start on a sour note.
  • Bitcoin ETF’s gain is crypto miners’ pain.

What’s happening?

The S&P 500 was little changed on Friday, closing about 30 basis points from a record high. Energy and real estate stocks led gains, countering a 1% drop in banks after a sour start to the fourth-quarter earnings season.

Record highs are exciting, but let’s be honest here — the stock market was the least exciting part of last week. It seemed like Wall Street’s — and investors’ — attention was squarely on the ups and downs of the Bitcoin ETF approval. Investors yawned at the December CPI report, showing that even inflation was on the backburner of people’s minds.

The attention may shift back to tradfi this week, though. Fourth-quarter earnings will continue to roll through, with financial stocks dominating the schedule. Concerns around turmoil in the Red Sea could fuel fears of inflation (fears that would be overblown, in our opinion). And of course, investors could hang on every little word Fed presidents say. 

However, this is a market with momentum at its back. Don’t underestimate that, especially if we break all-time highs.

The setup

There’s been a lot of celebrating around the release of spot Bitcoin ETFs. And for good reason — it’s a huge milestone for the crypto industry.

But we haven’t talked enough about the collateral damage these ETFs have caused just a few days into their existence.

Bitcoin has dropped about 8% since the approvals, a sign that people are moving on from the excitement in a “sell the news” type of way. Crypto-adjacent stocks, however, are plummeting in a more dramatic fashion. The four biggest US-listed Bitcoin miners — Marathon Digital, Cleanspark, Iris Energy, and Riot — are down an average of 22% since Thursday.

The reasoning is simple: Pure Bitcoin has to share the spotlight with another comparable investment, so people are pulling their money out of one pocket and sticking it in another. It doesn’t help that the Bitcoin halving is the next big event on crypto’s radar — an event that could slash block rewards for miners.

The interest in Bitcoin itself likely won’t wane, and there are still benefits to investing in pure crypto, as I wrote in the latest The Bottom Line on the Bitcoin ETFs. But for now, Bitcoin ETFs’ gain could be crypto miners’ pain.

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What Wall Street is watching

C: Citigroup was one of the best-performing bank stocks on Friday, as it announced plans to eliminate 20,000 jobs as part of an organizational overhaul. Still, Citigroup reported fourth-quarter revenue and earnings that both missed estimates.

LMT: Lockheed Martin stock jumped its most in three months after NASA and the defense contractor unveiled a plane designed to safely fly faster than the speed of sound.

REGN: Shares of Regeneron Pharmaceuticals made a new record high after RBC Capital analyst Brian Abrahams upgraded his target on the stock, citing optimism around the Dupixent drug trial and strong Eylea HD data. Abrahams thinks Regeneron shares could rise 15% more in the next 12 months, to $1,076.

Disclaimer:

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.