Slowing inflation is good. But apparently, it’s not good enough.
That’s the big takeaway from this wild week of economic news. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index data showed inflation is still growing 7% year over year. Then, the Fed announced a smaller rate hike than in previous months, with a caveat that rates could move even higher next year.
It’s clear inflation is slowing down dramatically, which shows the Fed’s medicine is working and the world is getting back to normal. But what calmed markets just weeks ago — a lower CPI print, a Fed shift — doesn’t seem to be enough to soothe investors’ concerns now that we’re about 15% away from S&P 500 record highs.
Why? Because normal may still be far away. In the 2010s, the average pace of inflation was around 2% a year (according to CPI). We may not return to that for a while, as 7% inflation is still miles away. Getting inflation back to that point could take months of high rates, which could keep us in a state of portfolio purgatory. What’s worse is that in the pursuit of cooling inflation down, the Fed expects economic growth to slow almost to a stop next year.
It’s disconcerting to hear that we could be in for another stretch of uncertainty, and high rates can be tough for smaller, speculative companies to handle. But before you spiral, remember that the stock market has overcome every bear it’s encountered in history.
You may just need to exercise more caution and measured risk-taking throughout this purgatory, however long it takes. And while we may not see record highs for a while, we may also not see another market bottom unless we see the job market crumble.
*Data sourced through Bloomberg. Can be made available upon request.