- Holding the S&P 500 for one year gives you a 73% chance of a positive return, rising to 94% if held for a decade
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sport a positivity rate of 100% when held for 20 years
- Stocks like Broadcom and Arista Networks weathered storms and rebounded with four-digit recoveries
February 14, 2025– Loyalty is just as crucial in investing as it is in romantic relationships, according to analysis conducted by trading and investing platform eToro for Valentine’s Day.
Based on historical total return data, the likelihood of a positive return from holding the S&P 500 for one single year is 73% (table 1). This figure rises to 94% if held for 10 years, and 100% if held for 20 years. Data for the Dow Jones tells a similar story when analyzing the last century of price action, with the probability of a positive return rising from 73% for one year to 96% for a 20-year relationship.
The Nasdaq Composite is the youngest index of the trio, but it highlights how dating can have its highs and lows before turning into something special. Dating back to 1972, the index had suffered six annual declines in excess of 30%, compared to just one such decline for the more well-established Dow Jones and S&P 500. One of those annual declines weighed in at a painful 40%. However, the Nasdaq has been the best-performing index over the last 20 years, up almost 1,000%.
Bret Kenwell, US Investment Analyst at eToro comments on the findings: “As the investing adage goes, time in the market beats timing the market. Sometimes investors forget how resilient the stock market can be. Just like relationships, there are ups and downs when investing, so it’s important to keep the bigger picture in mind and not be too quick to go running for the hills when things seem bleak.”
“Our analysis underscores how a long-term commitment to a well-diversified mix of stocks can deliver impressive returns down the stretch. Despite some tough times along the way — and there were several in this 100-year study — investors who held on for the long term were handsomely rewarded.”
Table 1: Likelihood of a positive return from holding different indices
| 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 20Y | |
| Nasdaq | 74% | 86% | 96% | 100% |
| S&P 500 | 73% | 88% | 94% | 100% |
| Dow | 73% | 86% | 92% | 96% |
Source: Bloomberg
eToro’s data also looked at five long-term relationships where loyalty paid off, as well as five short-term flings that left investors heartbroken when it came to stocks over the past ten years.
Investors who rode out the tough times with companies like Broadcom, Arista Networks and TSMC, staying strong through 50-60% dips, were eventually rewarded with massive gains (table 2). Broadcom, for example, saw its share price crash 53% from January to March 2020, but recovered 1,450% by the time of its all-time high in January 2025.
On the other hand, investors who were swept off their feet by eye-catching rallies posted by the likes of Zoom, Peloton and Docusign were less lucky in love, as these stocks came crashing down soon after and continue to underperform the market (table 3). Peloton saw the biggest rally at 870%, but also the biggest plunge at 98%, and today its share price is far from where it was at its IPO.
Kenwell adds: “Our list of ‘short-term flings’ thrived in the early days of COVID, but that thrilling honeymoon phase quickly soured as lockdown measures eased. This serves as a reminder that while these trades can start off fun — and even be quite rewarding — they can turn toxic if investors overstay their welcome.”
“It’s important to remember that every stock goes through its tough stretches, even the well-established ones with strong fundamentals. However, as investors gain experience, hopefully they can learn to distinguish between the short-term flings and the ones with more to offer over the long term.”
Table 2: Long-term relationships – stocks that have posted spectacular recoveries after a major dip in last ten years
| Stock | Plunge | Recovery to peak | Returns last 5 years | Returns last 10 years |
| Axon Enterprises | -62%
(Jan 2021 to Jun 2022) |
748%
(Jun 2022 to Jan 2025) |
717% | 2,442% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company | -60%
(Jan 2022 to Oct 2022) |
284%
(Oct 2022 to Jan 2025) |
214% | 811% |
| Broadcom | -53%
(Jan 2020 to Mar 2020) |
1,450%
(Mar 2020 to Dec 2024) |
633% | 2,108% |
| Arista Networks | -53%
(Apr 2019 to Mar 2020) |
1,290%
(Mar 2020 to Jan 2025) |
694% | 3,152% |
| Oracle Corporation | -42%
(Nov 2021 to Sep 2022) |
229%
(Sep 2022 to Dec 2024) |
214% | 301% |
Source: Refinitiv (February 7, 2025)
*Past performance is not an indication of future results
Table 3: Short-term flings – stocks that made eye-catching rallies in the last ten years, but have underperformed since
| Stock | Rally | Plunge to trough | Returns last 5 years | Returns since IPO* |
| Peloton Interactive | 870%
(Mar 2020 to Jan 2021) |
-98%
(Jan 2021 to Apr 2024) |
-69% | -67%
(Sep 2019) |
| Zoom | 852%
(Nov 2019 to Oct 2020) |
-90%
(Oct 2020 to July 2024) |
-2% | 39%
(April 2019) |
| Docusign | 791%
(Nov 2018 to Aug 2021) |
-87%
(Aug 2021 to Oct 2022) |
12% | 136%
(April 2018) |
| Roku | 727%
(Mar 2020 to Jul 2021) |
-92%
(Jul 2021 to Dec 2022) |
-34% | 245%
(Sep 2017) |
| Chewy | 463%
(Mar 2020 to Feb 2021) |
-87%
(Feb 2021 to April 2024) |
38% | 10%
(Jun 2019) |
Source: Refinitiv (February 7, 2025)
*All of these stocks went public during the previous ten years so there is no ten-year performance data.
*Past performance is not an indication of future results
*ENDS*
Notes to editors
About this data
eToro analyzed the total returns from the S&P 500 from 1928-2025, Dow Jones from 1924-2025, and Nasdaq Composite from 1971-2025 using data from Bloomberg. Individual stock data taken from Refinitiv.
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