Learn about macroeconomics  •  Lesson 5 of 7
Trade stocks on eToro
Join now
Trade stocks on eToro

Use the economic cycle to help you decide which stocks to trade.

Join now

Your capital is at risk. Other fees apply.

There are plenty of reasons why an investor might want to buy a particular stock, but it is important to acknowledge that certain external factors are beyond the control of a company’s management team and employees. Below, discover how the economic cycle might impact the performance of a stock.


Stocks demonstrate varying performance levels throughout the inevitable ups and downs of the economic cycle. These variations arise due to the influence of external factors such as inflation and interest rates, which significantly impact stock valuations. 

Fortunately, historical reference points can serve as a valuable guide that can help you to prepare, realign and diversify your portfolio to achieve your financial goals and better understand the relationship between the economy and the stock market. This economic data can, in turn, help investors to understand which point we are at in an economic cycle, which should better enable them to decide what stocks to invest in.

How do different stock sectors perform throughout the economic cycle?

The four stages of the economic cycle are closely linked to specific market conditions. During periods of economic expansion and contraction, macroeconomic factors, such as unemployment levels and consumer spending, inevitably respond to these underlying conditions.

Understanding these associations in the market is crucial for business leaders and investors, as not all stocks are impacted in the same way. By selecting the right stocks in the right economic cycle sectors, you could potentially set yourself up for higher returns.

Defensive sectors

Defensive stocks are known for exhibiting a lower-than-average response to the booms and busts of the broader economic cycle. This sector is characterized by large blue-chip companies with impressive track records, and market positions that shield them from the negative impacts of economic downturns.

For example, Proctor & Gamble and National Grid – in the healthcare and utilities sectors, respectively – are two companies that provide essential products and services that continue to be in demand even when the economy is suffering.

Tip: Defensive stocks have limited potential for gains and often underperform the broader stock market during periods of economic expansion.

Cyclical sectors

Contrary to defensive stocks, cyclical stocks are characterized by their strong correlation with the state of the underlying economy. Within the cyclical stock sector, there is a sub-group known as consumer discretionary stocks, which includes companies such as Ralph Lauren. These companies offer products that are desired rather than required. 

During a period of economic expansion, it is possible to anticipate an increase in demand for luxury goods and services. This is because consumers tend to feel more confident and have additional disposable income to spend. On the other hand, when the economy stalls or contracts, the demand for these products usually decreases.

The tech sector

Tech stocks are highly sensitive to market sentiment, as many of them rely on earnings projections. These earnings projections are heavily tied to the future success of a new, innovative product or service. 

Economic uncertainty can significantly shake confidence levels regarding the realization of these projections, consequently influencing current stock valuations. When an economy is expanding, tech stock earnings projections tend to either hold up or be upgraded, which is usually positive for the stock price.

Tip: Stock bull markets often peak before the economy does, meaning a bull-run can start before the recession is over.

How are different stock factors impacted throughout the economic cycle?

The varying long-term performance levels of assets across different stock sectors can be attributed to the unique challenges and opportunities they face during the different phases of the economic cycle. Breaking down these stock factors can help investors to identify their next trading opportunity.

Rate sensitivities

Interest rates determine the cost of borrowing money, which in turn affects levels of consumer spending and capital investment by companies. Therefore, it is no surprise that central banks raise and lower rates to restrict and stimulate economic activity.

With this in mind, investors often find defensive stocks to be an interesting option because they are less exposed to the impact of interest rate movements than cyclical or tech stocks. 

Growth 

A growth stock is characterized by its potential to increase in value at a rate greater than the market average. Historical examples include Apple and Microsoft, both of which generated impressive returns for investors at a time when other tech start-ups went bust due to downturns in the economic cycle. 

Companies that invest in expansive growth programs, with the promise of future revenue, tend to have well-performing stocks during periods of economic growth, but they may underperform when economies contract.

Stock value

Classical stock valuation models are based on a company’s projected future earnings. During an economic slowdown, not only are earnings projections often downgraded, but uncertainty also arises. 

When entering into a recession, no one can be certain of how long the downturn will last. This can exert additional downward pressure on stock prices. The opposite holds true when an economy enters an expansion phase.

Dividends

Dividends paid to investors are sourced from a company’s profits. As the overall levels of economic activity rise and fall, so do corporate revenues, and the scale of dividend payments. 

Since dividends are paid at the discretion of a company’s management team, during a recession, a decision may be made to withhold dividend payments in order to protect the business’s balance sheet and ensure the longer-term survival of the company

The duration of each stage in the economic cycle is highly variable. Therefore, investors should carefully consider their investment time horizon and personal investment goals, as these will determine whether they have enough time to ride out market volatility.

Final thoughts

Understanding the natural economic cycles can help you to understand the best time to buy, and what to invest in. Developing a strategy that ensures your portfolio is diversified allows you to maintain flexibility in case the timing of a fundamental shift does not materialize as expected.

Although nothing is certain within the economic market, cycles have demonstrated that patterns do tend to arise and can potentially be utilized to your advantage.  

Visit the eToro Academy to learn about the different sectors to invest in.

Quiz

Which of the following stock sectors is most strongly correlated with the underlying economy?
Defensive stocks
Cyclical stocks
 

FAQs

How many sectors exist within the stock market?

The market is generally considered to be divided into 11 stock sectors: information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, real estate, industrials, materials and utilities.

What is a sector rotation strategy?

Sector rotation strategies involve an investor shifting their portfolio allocations between different sectors of the economy, depending on the prevailing economic conditions. Sector rotation can help investors to capitalize on sectors that are expected to outperform the market in a particular economic environment, potentially achieving better risk-adjusted returns.

What are good strategies for trading in a bear market?

During periods of falling asset prices, some buy-and-hold investors opt to gradually accumulate stock positions over time, in order to achieve a lower average entry price.

This communication is for information and education purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation to buy or sell, any financial instruments.

This material has been prepared without taking into account any particular recipient’s investment objectives or financial situation and has not been prepared in accordance with the legal and regulatory requirements to promote independent research. Any references to past or future performance of a financial instrument, index or a packaged investment product are not, and should not be taken as, a reliable indicator of future results.

eToro makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the content of this publication.