Over the past few weeks, the news has been busy with floods, Megxit and Covid 19, but this week Brexit came back with a bang, as the UK set out its demands for a trade deal – and the EU didn’t like a lot of it.
The UK officially left the European Union at the end of January, but for the rest of 2020 the nation is in a kind of limbo while Prime Minister Boris Johnson negotiates a trade deal with our pals across the channel.
Having already publicly slammed any preconceived ideas the EU may have had about fishing in UK waters, along with the rest of the EU’s ‘shopping list’ that would see a free trade deal be agreed, Mr Johnson has now laid down the gauntlet on how long he will entertain negotiations.
He has stated, sternly, that the UK will walk out of trade talks in June if it doesn’t think there has been enough progress, or its demands are not going to be met.
Remember that “no-deal” scenario? It’s back.
So focused on the task at hand is he that ministers and officials have been told to prepare for full customs and security checks at ports and airports to be in place from January 1, 2021, should talks collapse this summer.
The prime minister’s lead EU negotiator, David Frost, set out his mandate in a 30-page document entitled “The Future Relationship With The EU”, in which it was made abundantly clear that it must be “capable of being rapidly finalised by September”, with an assessment of progress being made in early June.
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Boris isn’t prepared to entertain continued demands from the EU for a “level playing field” when it comes to regulations and standards. Instead, the UK would like a type of mutual appreciation society, in which either side respects, but does not have to stick to, each other’s rules and regulations.
Should talks collapse and no concrete deal be put in place, the relationship between the EU and the UK would be similar to what is already in place with Australia – the above-mentioned mutual recognition of standards and access to each other’s markets.
The EU, aware of the firm stance being taken by the UK government, have taken a less aggressive approach to the negotiations, stating all they want is “an ambitious and fair partnership with the UK in the future” and a mid-year rendezvous is a “fair timeline”.
However, on Friday, France’s Europe Minister Amelie de Montchalin said Brussels would not be pressurised by “artificial deadlines.”
Currency markets, for now at least, seem to be siding with the EU: the Euro was worth 3 cents more against Sterling on Friday afternoon than on Monday morning. However, there are plenty of other factors at play, not least a tumble of global stock markets.
There’s a lot of time between now and June, so anything could happen before then. But be prepared for much more to-ing and fro-ing on the Eurostar – Brexit is just getting started.
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